IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Preseason Rankings
Jacksonville St.
Ohio Valley
2020-21

Overall
Predictive Rating	-5.8	#255
Expected Predictive Rating	+0.0	#1

Pace	68.6	#186
Improvement	-	-

Offense
Total Offense	-4.1	#289

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebound	-	-

Layup/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

Defense
Total Defense	-1.7	#221

First Shot	-	-
After Offensive Rebounds	-	-

Layups/Dunks	-	-
2 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
3 Pt Jumpshots	-	-
Freethrows	-	-

Improvement	-	-

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	2.6%	8.3%	2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.4%	0.0%
Average Seed	14.8	13.7	14.9

.500 or above	32.1%	68.3%	31.1%
.500 or above in Conference	48.4%	73.4%	47.7%
Conference Champion	2.2%	8.5%	2.0%
Last Place in Conference	5.4%	1.1%	5.5%

First Four	0.4%	0.3%	0.4%
First Round	2.4%	8.0%	2.2%
Second Round	0.2%	1.3%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 2.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 2	0 - 4
Quad 3	2 - 6	2 - 10
Quad 4	9 - 5	11 - 15

Date	Opponent		Result/Prediction			Record	Conf		Rating	Offense	Defense
Nov 25, 2020	32	@ Alabama	L	69-90	3%
Nov 27, 2020	191	Florida Atlantic	L	68-72	37%
Nov 29, 2020	187	@ South Alabama	L	65-72	26%
Dec 04, 2020	171	@ Florida International	L	72-80	24%
Dec 06, 2020	171	@ Florida International	L	72-80	23%
Dec 13, 2020	304	@ Tennessee Tech	L	68-69	48%
Dec 16, 2020	304	Tennessee Tech	W	72-66	68%
Dec 30, 2020	324	Tennessee Martin	W	80-71	78%
Jan 02, 2021	331	@ SIU Edwardsville	W	73-69	62%
Jan 07, 2021	211	@ Eastern Kentucky	L	75-80	32%
Jan 09, 2021	296	@ Morehead St.	L	69-70	47%
Jan 14, 2021	269	Tennessee St.	W	73-69	61%
Jan 16, 2021	114	Belmont	L	70-77	29%
Jan 21, 2021	105	@ Murray St.	L	64-77	13%
Jan 23, 2021	133	@ Austin Peay	L	67-78	18%
Jan 28, 2021	296	Morehead St.	W	72-67	66%
Jan 30, 2021	211	Eastern Kentucky	W	78-77	52%
Feb 04, 2021	324	@ Tennessee Martin	W	77-74	59%
Feb 06, 2021	325	@ Southeast Missouri St.	W	72-69	59%
Feb 11, 2021	186	Eastern Illinois	L	72-73	47%
Feb 13, 2021	331	SIU Edwardsville	W	76-66	79%
Feb 18, 2021	114	@ Belmont	L	67-80	15%
Feb 20, 2021	269	@ Tennessee St.	L	70-72	42%
Feb 25, 2021	105	Murray St.	L	67-74	28%
Feb 27, 2021	133	Austin Peay	L	70-75	36%
Projected Record						11 - 14	9 - 11

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Ohio Valley Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0		Total
1st															0.1	0.3	0.6	0.6	0.4	0.1	0.0		2.2	1st
2nd													0.0	0.3	0.9	1.5	0.9	0.4	0.0				3.9	2nd
3rd												0.1	0.9	2.1	2.4	1.4	0.3	0.0					7.2	3rd
4th										0.0	0.4	1.8	3.9	3.4	1.4	0.2	0.0						11.0	4th
5th									0.0	0.7	2.5	4.5	3.4	1.2	0.1								12.5	5th
6th								0.0	0.8	3.6	5.1	3.0	0.8	0.0									13.5	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	1.1	3.9	4.9	2.4	0.6	0.0										12.9	7th
8th						0.1	1.1	3.8	4.5	1.9	0.3	0.0											11.8	8th
9th				0.0	0.1	0.9	2.9	3.8	1.4	0.2	0.0												9.3	9th
10th				0.2	1.1	2.7	2.5	0.8	0.1	0.0													7.4	10th
11th		0.0	0.2	1.1	1.8	1.5	0.6	0.0															5.3	11th
12th	0.1	0.4	0.9	0.9	0.7	0.2	0.0																3.1	12th

Total	0.1	0.4	1.0	2.2	3.6	5.4	7.3	9.5	10.8	11.3	10.8	9.9	9.0	7.1	4.9	3.5	1.7	0.9	0.5	0.1	0.0			Total

Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total		Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way	7-Way	8-Way
20-0	100.0%	0.0		0.0
19-1	100.0%	0.1		0.1	0.0
18-2	91.8%	0.4		0.3	0.1
17-3	61.6%	0.6		0.3	0.3	0.0
16-4	32.2%	0.6		0.2	0.2	0.1	0.0
15-5	10.1%	0.3		0.0	0.2	0.1	0.0
14-6	2.3%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
13-7	0.0%
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	2.2%	2.2		1.0	0.8	0.2	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance		Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed		1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid		At-Large if not Auto
20-0	0.0%		75.8%	72.7%	3.0%	10.6										0.0	0.0			0.0				0.0		11.1%
19-1	0.1%		50.0%	41.8%	8.2%	12.4												0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0			0.0		14.0%
18-2	0.5%		26.0%	26.0%		13.9													0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0		0.3
17-3	0.9%		29.0%	29.0%		13.5													0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.7
16-4	1.7%		21.0%	21.0%		14.4													0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0	1.4
15-5	3.5%		16.9%	16.9%		14.8														0.0	0.2	0.3	0.1	2.9
14-6	4.9%		8.5%	8.5%		15.3														0.0	0.0	0.2	0.2	4.5
13-7	7.1%		4.5%	4.5%		15.4														0.0	0.0	0.1	0.2	6.8
12-8	9.0%		2.2%	2.2%		15.7																0.1	0.1	8.8
11-9	9.9%		1.4%	1.4%		15.7																0.0	0.1	9.8
10-10	10.8%		0.3%	0.3%		15.7																0.0	0.0	10.7
9-11	11.3%		0.5%	0.5%		16.0																	0.1	11.2
8-12	10.8%		0.1%	0.1%		16.0																	0.0	10.8
7-13	9.5%																							9.5
6-14	7.3%																							7.3
5-15	5.4%																							5.4
4-16	3.6%																							3.6
3-17	2.2%																							2.2
2-18	1.0%																							1.0
1-19	0.4%																							0.4
0-20	0.1%																							0.1

Total	100%		2.6%	2.6%	0.0%	14.8										0.0	0.0	0.0	0.1	0.3	0.5	0.9	0.8	97.4		0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Lose Out	0.1%